On Friday, Fox had a short segment on its Special Report show about self-driving cars and how they are coming on strong. A Carnegie-Mellon scientist opined that full automation would take eight to ten years — perhaps, but the major business players would like to get there faster.
Below, Waymo self-driving cars [1] from the Google company have clocked over five million miles on the road.
The story highlighted the rapid progress of the technology, but it neglected the social consequences [2] of what happens when autonomous cars fully arrive with associated job loss. Driving is a common occupation for Americans, employing 3.8 million persons in this country.
Similarly, driving is a popular job for immigrants. A 2013 report from the Center for Immigration Studies, Are There Really Jobs Americans Won’t Do? [3], found that among taxi drivers and chauffeurs, 58 percent are native born, which means that 42 percent are foreign born.
A truck-industry website, Fleetowner.com, reported [4] on Jun 11, 2017, “Currently, of the 1.2 million motor carrier-employed U.S. truck drivers (operating Class 8 trucks) about 224,722 or 18.6% are immigrants.”
Yes, there are self-driving semi trucks in the pipeline too [5].
Automation technology is only beginning to revolutionize the workplace. Oxford researchers forecast in 2013 that nearly half of American jobs were vulnerable [6] to machine or software replacement within 20 years. Rice University computer scientist Moshe Vardi believes that in 30 years [7] humans will become largely obsolete, and world joblessness will reach 50 percent. The Gartner tech advising company believes that one-third of jobs will be done by machines by 2025 [8]. The consultancy firm PwC published a report last year that forecast robots could take 38 percent of US jobs by 2030 [9]. Last November the McKinsey Global Institute reported that automation “could displace up to 800 million workers [10] — 30 percent of the global workforce — by 2030.” Forrester Research estimates that robots and artificial intelligence could eliminate [11] nearly 25 million jobs in the United States over the next decade, but it should create nearly 15 million positions, resulting in a loss of 10 million US jobs.
Given the staggering extent of future job loss, it’s crazy to continue immigration as if it were 1910 in America. We should just stop.
AUTOMATION MAKES IMMIGRATION OBSOLETE.
Here’s the Fox News report:
BRYAN LLENAS: Whether it’s picking up customers in Las Vegas or delivering a pizza in Michigan or Miami, today driverless vehicles are being tested seemingly everywhere. In fact at least 40 cities in the US are testing autonomous vehicles or are committed to doing so. At Carnegie Mellon’s robotics lab, engineers have partnered with General Motors.
RAJ RAJKUMAR: We actually have radar behind the logo.
LLENAS: This 2011 Cadillac SRX drives autonomously but with a human test driver on board and along specific city routes. The ultimate goal is to create the world’s first fully autonomous vehicle that drives itself anywhere in any conditions.
RAJKUMAR: It’s going to take at least, my estimate, eight to ten years before we likely reach full automation.
LLENAS: And the race to be first is well underway. General Motors plans to launch self-driving robo-taxis with no steering wheels or pedals in US cities by 2019. GM is in a dead heat with self-driving company Waymo. Waymo’s driverless cars have driven over five million miles through two dozen cities. The Google offshoot will launch a ride-sharing service this year but there are new concerns about safety. Uber has suspended driverless car testing after its self-driving vehicle hit and killed a woman on March 18th in Tempe, Arizona. The company is now being accused of compromising safety in an effort to catch up with leading competitors like Waymo, an accusation it denies.
MICHAEL LAMB, PITTSBURGH CONTROLLER: Maybe now is the time to rethink about how how Uber works in the city and how it tests its vehicles here.
LLENAS: Michael Lamb is Pittsburgh city controller. Uber started testing its autonomous vehicles there in 2016. He admits his city hastily welcomed Uber under the handshake promise of a partnership which he says is one-sided.
LAMB: We’ve opened the city to them, allowed them to test their vehicles here. They’re out now collecting a lot of data. If Uber can monetize that data, shouldn’t the city benefit from that monetization?
LLENAS: Twenty-two states have enacted autonomous vehicle legislation so far, as government tries to catch up with an industry in the fast lane. Inclement weather poses a big hurdle for autonomous vehicles. Heavy rain for instance makes it difficult for car sensors to pick up objects. Still, RethinkX, an independent think tank, predicts by 2030, 95 percent of the miles traveled in the US will be in self-driving cars.