Labor Day [1] is becoming a time of dismal reflection as automation technology continues its incursion into new places in the jobs economy. For example, self-driving taxis were rolled out for public testing in Singapore [2] and Pittsburgh [3] in August. A robot security guard was sighted in a San Francisco parking lot [4] earlier in the summer. In California, the new $15 minimum wage has pushed fast food restaurants to replace counter workers with ordering kiosks [5].
It was reported a few days ago that Walmart is cutting hundreds of accounting and invoicing jobs [6], which sounds like a software upgrade [7] or consolidation, as well as adding “cash recyler” machines for counting up the cash.
Of course, news outlets rarely report when an inexpensive robot [8] is introduced in a small business and workers are quietly let go. The good news of outsourced jobs being returned the US is diminished [9] by fewer workers being needed in the automated workplaces. The jobs economy faces the death of a thousand cuts.
Generac Power Systems, which shifted some of its work from abroad, can now make an alternator with one worker in the time it took four workers in China. Above, an employee at its Whitewater, Wis., plant.
Nevertheless, productivity is up. Rice University’s Professor Moshe Vardi [10] observed, “U.S. factories are not disappearing: They simply aren’t employing human workers.” He further noted [11] that manufacturing employment has been falling for more than 30 years [11], and yet U.S. manufacturing output is near its all-time high [12].
The pain being felt across working America is real: Pew Research reported last year that America is no longer majority middle class [13].
Another dreary measure: the August report of labor force participation showed 94,391,000 Americans not in the work force [14], unchanged from July’s 62.8 percent.
In addition, the technology revolution in the workplace follows decades of outsourcing of millions of manufacturing jobs and excessive immigration [15] to lower wages on remaining US employment.
Meanwhile, the borders are wide open on all fronts. Central Americans flood in [16] because Obama welcomes them by recategorizing them as “refugees” [17] who get free stuff immediately. The president also greased the skids for dangerous, unscreenable Syrians, 10,000 of whom were speed-processed [18], and he promised that number is “a floor, not a ceiling” [19] of Muslims (not persecuted Christians [20]) being imported as refugees. Some of these new residents will want jobs and they will compete against low-skilled citizens who are hard-pressed by the current employment situation.
The automation forecasts are sobering. In 2013, an Oxford University study was published that concluded nearly half of US employment is at risk of being replaced by smart machines [21] within 20 years. The Gartner tech consultants predicted in 2014 that one-third of jobs will be replaced by automation and software by 2025 [22]. Why are there no Congressional hearings investigating this threat to the economy?
Given the changing nature of the workplace, it makes no sense to continue immigrating foreigners who are unemployable now and less so in the future. In fact,
Automation makes immigration obsolete.
Here is another take on automation on Labor Day:
The future of automation and your job [23], by Wayne T. Price, Florida Today, September 3, 2016
Imagine it’s 2030, and it’s nearing time to eat dinner.
You text a grocery store where your order is taken for a pound of ground beef, a box of Hamburger Helper and maybe some lettuce and tomatoes for a salad. Possibly you want to fancy it up with a bottle of cabernet. The beef was butchered and packaged by a machine. Robots picked and processed the grapes, which where then bottled and shipped to a market by automation.
A driverless car, or possibly a drone aircraft, delivers the goods to your front door. You never see a person from the text-to-your-doorstep process.
There are maybe four or five jobs currently associated with that scene: From the grocery store clerk, to the produce person to the butcher who packaged the beef and the winery were the grapes were picked.
All those jobs could vanish in the years ahead as technology moves at lightening speed to make our lives easier. It’s hard to imagine one area, maybe motherhood excepted, where humans couldn’t be replaced by automation or at least significantly affected by technologies.
According to the latest employment stats from Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity, Brevard had 202,400 (not seasonably adjusted) jobs in July. Most of those jobs were concentrated in areas like “good producing,” which includes manufacturing and assembly; services, such as retail, and also leisure and hospitality.
“I’d say almost all jobs are in some jeopardy, including many white-collar positions that were previously sheltered from automation,” said Scott Tilley, a professor in the Department of Engineering Systems at the Florida Institute of Technology and president of the Big Data Florida user group.
“On the hardware side, robots are becoming increasingly adept at mimicking human movement,” Tilley said. “This means they can interact with people much easier than before. On the software side, artificial intelligence – coupled with big data analytics and cloud computing – are making programs and the robots that use the AI software much ‘smarter’ in the sense that they can act autonomously. These programs will only get better — and it won’t take eons for them to evolve like we did.”
With Labor Day on Monday, FLORIDA TODAY looked at several sectors in the job market that seem riper for automation. But while these sectors have been discussed as ones where technology will play a greater role, it doesn’t mean people in these fields are in jeopardy of a job loss anytime soon.
Manufacturing
Ken Brace runs Rapid Prototyping Services in Satellite Beach. He started out with one 3D printer and now has five. By his estimation, that’s the equivalent of five humans. The machines can work 24 hours a day, don’t require health and dental and don’t call in sick.Printers such as the ones used at Rapid Prototyping have been around for a decade or more but have started growing more popular as manufacturers seek ways to provide greater turnaround, reduce production costs and provide consistency. The outlook seems to only get better and better for 3D printing contracts and it’s something the 21,900 Brevard workers currently in the manufacturing sector should consider.
“My father and I had a manufacturing plant out in Palm Bay for 20 years,” Brace said. “And we had to have an employee in front of every machine or we wouldn’t run it. So we would run it as long as we had a shift of people in front of the machine. This 3D printing literally runs by itself, 24 hours a day.”
Julie Song, president of Florida Business & Manufacturing Solutions, said automation in manufacturing is nothing new and been part of the labor picture for decades. It hasn’t been the death knell for manufacturing employment.
“There still needs to be someone to program the machines – they can run on their own once set,” Song said. “Of course, the machines need to be maintained and someone has to ensure the parts aren’t coming out wrong. There still will be the human touch.”
This undated image provided by Amazon.com shows the so-called Prime Air unmanned aircraft project that Amazon is working on in its research and development labs. Amazon says it will take years to advance the technology and for the Federal Aviation Administration to create the necessary rules and regulations, but CEO Jeff Bezos has there’s no reason drones can’t help get goods to customers in 30 minutes or less. (Photo: USA TODAY)
Fast Food/retail
Fast food giant McDonald’s, and its competitors, routinely are maligned for their pay structure and how the jobs don’t provide a “livable wage” for employees.Why not just add machines that aren’t represented by unions or demand a $15-an-hour wage?
Already some fast food restaurants are experimenting with automated cashiers. Some even have inventory control software that will order bags of French fries when it senses the supply getting low.
“I see that as the trend,” said Howard Appell, publisher of Today’s Restaurant, a Boca Raton-based industry publication focusing on restaurant industry.
“The industry is trying to cut back on labor. It’s going to cut out a lot of people who are earning minimum wage.”
For Brevard that could mean a sizable bite into the leisure and hospitality industry, which currently covers about 26,000 workers.
“Many companies will look to self-serve kiosks and automated food preparation systems to replace cashiers and short-order cooks,” Tilley predicted. “The days of a first job at McDonalds for teenagers may soon be coming to an end.”
Delivery/taxi divers/pilots
Uber is experimenting with driver-less taxis and delivery trucks and Elon Musk at Tesla is working on vehicles that run on “autopilot.”Then of course, there is Amazon Prime’s strategy of using drones – pilot-less aircraft – to deliver goods.
If that’s the future what would it mean for employees of UPS, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service? In Brevard County, 36,800 employees fall into the job classification of “trade, transportation and utilities.”
Earlier this month, Uber, the visionary transportation company, announced it was acquiring Otto, a technology start up that’s developing an aftermarket version of autonomous technology for cargo trucks. Otto is testing sensors, software, and other technologies that could be quickly fitted on existing trucks so as not to require huge investments in new fleets.
Deborah Lockedge, editor-in-chief at TruckingInfo.com said driverless and pilot-less vehicles will have an impact but that doesn’t spell a death knell for those involved in transportation.
“While autonomous vehicle technologies, drones, and other technologies have the potential to drive significant changes in trucking, I don’t believe they’ll be putting millions of truck drivers out of jobs or putting companies like UPS and FedEx out of business,” she said.
Financial services
You might think having a computer algorithm decide your financial decisions and oversee your retirement kitty is a little bit “out there.” It’s not.So-called “Robo-Advisers” are growing more popular. They’re online wealth management services that provide automated portfolio management and advice for those who don’t want to actively manage their own portfolio with a human being.
The most obvious benefit of a digital investment adviser is the reduced cost.
In an article for USA TODAY, Jeff Reeves, editor of InvestorPlace.com and the author of “The Frugal Investor’s Guide to Finding Great Stocks” used robo-adviser firm Betterment as an example to show why the automated service is growing in popularity. Betterman boasts $2.8 billion in assets under management and roughly 115,000 customers. Betterment charges 0.35 percent for accounts under $10,000 in assets, 0.25 percent for accounts between $10,000 and $100,000, and just 0.15 percent annually for accounts over $100,000.
That’s significantly cheaper than the 0.64 percent charged by the typical mutual fund or ETF, according to a recent fee study by Morningstar.
In Brevard, about 7,400 are employed in the “financial activities” sector and 28,000 are included in the professional and business services sector.
“More big, online brokers are launching robo advisory arms,” Arielle O’Shean, an investing specialist with NerdWallet.com, told FLORIDA TODAY last week. “They’re obviously attracting a lot of clients. And there’s a certain set of clients who are well served by an online advisor, generally someone who doesn’t want to talk to a human and doesn’t need that type of hand holding and doesn’t necessarily want to, or feel they need to, pick up a phone and call an adviser.”
Security/policing
Go to any home improvement or electronics retailer and you’ll see small video cameras, motion detectors and numerous other gadgets meant to put you more in charge of monitoring what’s taking place in and outside your residence.If someone rings your doorbell and you’re away on business, these devices will shoot a live video to your smart phone and you can talk to the person. If it’s someone casing your property, you can either deter the individual by convincing the would-be intruder that you’re home or immediately alert authorities. You’ll also have an image of the individuals.
That could alter local home security business as it cuts out monitored monthly services that typically require an annual contract. One study cited by Forbes said only one in five households are enrolled in home-security monitoring contracts although 100 percent of the people interviewed said they wanted to feel safe in their residence.
In Brevard about 1,000 individuals are involved in private security and the county boasts more than 4,379 workers listed as working in “protective service occupations.”
