Perhaps people will look back on 2001 as the year in which Californians came to realize that skyrocketing growth cannot go on indefinitely. The idea that unending population growth is either possible or desirable was exposed as a lie. Electricity shortages, though not as dire as originally forecast, were a wake-up call that California was no longer a mythical paradise of natural beauty and easy-going lifestyles. But a serious drought could make power shortages seem like a day at the beach, particularly since there are now 10 million more Californians than were present during the drought of the late 1970s, so even a small rain shortage will be grim, as we are rapidly learning.
California has had only one year since 1995 when the rainfall was below average. Last year's water shortfall could only be called moderate by historical standards, yet one more year of similar below-average rain could put the state into crisis. “Our situation could be very serious if we have a dry season next year,” remarked Maurice Roos, chief hydrologist for the California Department of Water Resources. “We simply don't have the storage capacity to carry us through two dry years any more.” (San Francisco Chronicle, 7/22/01)
And while we can build more power plants to deal with the overpopulation-affected electricity crisis, a water shortage is far more problematic. The dams have all been built and desalinization plants would be expensive as well as environmentally harmful. Agricultural land might be taken out of production to free up some water for direct human use, but that strategy could easily raise food prices. There is a glut on the world grain market now, but that situation is unlikely to last. Growing population pressures assure us that as demand rises, so will the cost of food. The conservation practices of the 1970s drought — grey-water gardening, short showers and generally reduced usage — will necessarily become the way of life as California hits 40 and 50 million residents, if not before.
Natural History Reality Check
Many Californians do not realize that they live in a region that is largely semi-arid. The legacy of water projects dating from early in the 20th century built an effective infrastructure that has lulled state residents into believing that reservoirs will always have enough water for the skyrocketing needs of agriculture, urban use and environmental requirements.
Studies of the state's natural history reveal that water supply over time varies a great deal. Flooding alternates with drought — sometimes at the same time in different areas. But periodic drought is a fact of this bioregion, as demonstrated by tree-ring studies going back hundreds of years. In fact, tree rings show some California droughts lasting decades.
Water Shortages across America
We are already seeing troubling signs. Farmers in the Oregon-California border Klamath region (which normally receives only 12 inches of rain annually) had their irrigation water turned off for a time because of drought conditions in the northwest. The press characterized the situation as farmers versus environmentalists, although it would be more accurate to see it as agricultural needs versus fishing. Insufficient water threatens salmon and other fish with extinction and the fishing industry has been hit hard with declining catches — the number of fishing boats has decreased sharply over the last few years. Part of the problem was the government promising more water to farmers and to streams and rivers than could reasonably be projected to be available every year. The most basic difficulty, of course, is too many people needing water for various equally valid purposes.
Further south, the Rio Grande didn't making it to the ocean in 2001. The early Spanish explorers found a river “a musket shot wide and 30 feet deep.” But the Rio Grande also has too many people drinking it up. The Texas population just clicked over 20 million, and Mexico recently passed 100 million. A several-year drought has added to the pressure.
As author of the book “Last Oasis” Sandra Postel remarked, “The basic problem is that water is a finite resource. It's renewable, but it's finite, and so water supplies per person tend to decrease as population increases.”
Can We Learn?
Such examples should be cautionary tales for everyone. Overuse of water supplies threatens the degradation of farmland and an increase in food prices, as well as obvious intrusions like home water rationing. The environment will continue to suffer, as water becomes more managed by government to prevent modern versions of water wars.
Water supply and quality will increasingly be a major issue. We can also assume that the immigration component to water shortages will not be mentioned by the media, with polite euphemisms like “increased demand” used instead. The big picture of exploding population (and its cause) must be repeatedly asserted by concerned citizens. Americans have a right to expect their water supply is used wisely — and that means restricted immigration. The finite nature of this resource demonstrates more than any other the limits to growth.
— by Brenda Walker
FURTHER READING:
California Snow Page
Water wonks might appreciate the information on the Sierra snow pack, as well as more general publications on water conditions in the state.
Will Limits of the Earth's Resouces Control Human Numbers?
The excellent section on water supply in this article drives home the fact that overpopulation is rapidly depleting fresh water supplies around the world.
Next drought could make energy crisis seem tame
Sacramento Bee columnist Daniel Weintraub looks mostly at the politics of water in California.
The Coming Age of Water Scarcity
Water expert Sandra Postel is interviewed by E Magazine about environmental concerns, including quality, industrialization, irrigation, growing population, the health of rivers and more.
World warned on water refugees
Two people in three across the world will face water shortages by 2025, according to a UK group. Many of those people will become environmental refugees, migrating in order to find a dependable water supply. This BBC story includes a map of future water-short regions and a list of critical areas today.
Snowpack on track: Sierra snowfall throws wet blanket on drought forecast
In January 2002, it appeared that an abnormally wet autumn would allow California to dodge the drought bullet for another year. Fingers remain crossed.
L.A. to serve toilet water
In an unsettling preview of a water-short nation, Los Angeles officials are considering implementing a plan to recyle toilet water for drinking purposes. The “Toilet to Tap” program would thoroughly purify the waster water, proponents promised.
Threat Assessment
Check out the current drought map from the National Weather Service. For the summary of forecasts and threats, see a more detailed explanation.
Interactive World Water Map
Check out areas of water crisis by clicking on the map to learn about the local situation. From the BBC.
Dawn of a Thirsty Century
This is an introductory page to an overview of the world water crisis from the BBC. The population statistics are brutal: "the World Water Council believes that by 2020 we shall need 17% more water than is available if we are to feed the world."
UN warns of looming water crisis
The United Nations warned that more than 2.7 billion people will face severe water shortages by the year 2025 if usage continues at today's levels. Even areas that have plenty of fresh water now are at risk from increasing pollution and rising demand.
Drought in Northeast, April 2002
An unseasonably warm winter with little rain pushed the East into a severe drought. Decreasing supply is discussed at length, but there is no mention of rising demand due to increasing population.
Drought solution in the bag: Towing water south in balloons proposed
It's come to this — an Alaskan businessman has proposed sucking up fresh water from northern California rivers and hauling it to southern California to sell. Mendocino folks are not happy with the scheme, with one resident asking, "Why should some guy from another place come here, take our water, destroy the environment in the process and then sell that water to someone else?"
Study: Global warming to hit California water
Global warming is forecast to lessen the snowpack, meaning less natural water storage for a state already playing water roulette. The population forecast is even more grim — 54 million Californians in 2025.
Low rainfall year devastates Southern California
The winter of 2001-02 was an extremely dry one for part of the state, even though the northern third of California received near-normal levels of rain. Los Angeles got just 4.4 inches of rain for the entire year, while 15.1 is the annual average.
Water Crisis Grows Into a Test of U.S.-Mexico Relations
Mexico owes America 456 billion gallons of water — enough to supply New York City for a year. Mexico's plans to fix the problem center around getting the U.S. to build a water system that will help alleviate Mexico's ongoing squandering of the resource.
Marin thirsty for desalination
The county north of the Golden Gate is considering its future in light of California's projected monstrous overpopulation -- from 35 million in 2002, exploding to 50 million by 2020. The truth is finally admitted, that "Even in the absence of drought, experts say, there soon will not be enough water available for the number of people crowding into the state."
Thirsty California starts to drink the Pacific
Skyrocketing population is pushing the state toward expensive tech solutions for the looming water crisis. Eighteen desalination plants are under consideration in California.
Western drought beats Dust Bowl, could be worse in 500 years
June, 2004: Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey say that the current drought gripping the West is worse than the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and might be the worst of the half millennium. Owen Lammers, director of Living Rivers, stated, "Once our reserve supply is gone, we have no plan of action for what to do." Another result would be an increase in the costs of electricity because of shrinking hydropower.
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