It has long been observed that there is a strong causal relationship between scarcity of renewable resources and the outbreak of violent conflict. Thomas F. Homer-Dixon compiles material from many international studies in a thorough distillation of that idea and concludes that shortages of food, water, and other renewable resources, can and do trigger violence in countries with failed social institutions. In these situations there is often a large gap between rich and poor, with hoarding of renewable resources by the elite. Half of the world's population live in such societies.
The author disputes the mantra of economists that are no limits to growth. A contributing factor is the lag time between when a problem is first noticed and when something can be done. First-world countries are more likely to have resources and the ability to make needed changes: third-world countries do not. This is what the author refers to as “the ingenuity gap.” The author doesn't believe this ingenuity, or more even distribution of resources in third world countries, will keep up with population increases. He describes water scarcity in China and India, a serious problem affecting huge populations. In Chiapas, Mexico, revolutionary violence occurred when elites hoarded the available arable land. These stressed populations often migrate.
This book is a monumental 911 call urging that we must find solutions to growing populations and decreasing renewable resources or face massive problems with conflict (more United States and United Nations intervention, and huge populations of refugees?). It is a disturbing picture of what is happening and why.
The author is an associate professor at the University of Toronto and is Director of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program there. He has authored other books including Environmental Scarcity and Global Security, and written for many scholarly journals.
— by Carol Joyal
