The CBS Sunday Morning show began a special edition focusing on money with a report on automation and its threat to employment now and going forward. The eight-minute video report included tough facts about job loss across the skills spectrum with expert comments by Rise of the Robots author Martin Ford and other involved in the technology.
The piece has more facts than most TV reports, but typically the pro-robot cadre is included, and they insist that automation will actually create jobs. Right, all the manufacturing workers, store stockers and pizza cooks will be retrained to be computer coders. As if. But that’s the only way to end the segment on a positive note. And of course, there’s no mention that immigration becomes a counterproductive policy in the automated future — that’s to be expected in network TV.
By every measure, our country is on the road to becoming an AUTOMATION NATION. Our Money Issue Cover Story comes from David Pogue of Yahoo Finance:
Tony Hughes has been a long-haul truck driver for more than 20 years. But today, all he has to do is sit back and relax.
“’Rosebud’ is on,” he said, flipping a switch.
Today, he’s hauling 20,000 pounds of freight down the Florida turnpike in a self-driving, robotic truck. It’s been retrofitted with a self-driving kit made by Starsky Robotics.
Stefan Seltz-Axmacher, who founded the company in 2016 with Kartik Tiwari, said, “We think that sometime towards the end of the year, we could be doing this run without a person behind the wheel.”
And if it’s not his company, it might be Otto, whose truck made headlines last October by driving itself across Colorado to deliver a shipment of beer. Otto is owned by Uber, which also has been testing self-driving taxis in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
But here’s the thing! Once our trucks and taxis drive themselves, what will happen to the people who used to do those jobs? In the U.S., that’s 180,000 taxi drivers, 600,000 Uber drivers, and 3.5 million truck drivers.
“We really need to start to think very seriously about this,” said Martin Ford, author of the book “Rise of the Robots” (Basic Books).
Ford says driverless cars and trucks are just the beginning of a wave of automation that will threaten millions of jobs, in every industry at once, like America’s nearly five million store workers.
Later this year, shoppers in Seattle will be able to walk into the first Amazon Go grocery, take what they want, and walk out again, without ever encountering an employee.
Sensors will detect what you take and bill you automatically.
“The cashiers are totally gone,” Ford said. “You’re going to end up with the equivalent of a Walmart with a handful of employees. You scale that out, and that’s just extraordinarily disruptive.”
Name an occupation, and there’s somebody considering a robot to take it over.
At Zume Pizza in Silicon Valley, four specialized robots help make the pizza. Eventually, the company plans to replace the remaining humans on the line, too.
Pogue said, “You would think there would be some Roman pizza chefs who’d say, ‘No, this is not the way it’s been done since our ancestors!’”
“Well, the world changes,” said Zume’s chief technology officer Josh Goldberg. “There’s a lot of other things we don’t do just the way our ancestors did, either.”
The common wisdom is that robots primarily threaten repetitive, blue-collar jobs. Not so, says Martin Ford: “We’re seeing dramatic advances in the area of computers analyzing tumors, recognizing medical scans, mammograms, and being able to find disease. We’re seeing algorithms move into areas like journalism, for example.”
Wait, wait, wait. Certainly not journalism? “Oh, yeah. Absolutely,” Ford said. “By one account, every 30 seconds there’s a news story published on the web, or maybe in a newspaper, that’s machine-generated.”
Algorithms are even threatening the Masters of the Universe. Two weeks ago, Black Rock, the world’s largest money manager, announced that it’s laying off dozens of human stock pickers and replacing them with robots. By 2025, across the financial industry, artificial intelligence is expected to replace 230,000 human workers. Continue reading this article
Of course, it goes without saying that America no longer needs to import immigrants to drive our trucks given the coming technology. There is supposedly a shortage of drivers now, leading to a push for immigrants, but that won’t last long. The future is automated, including on the highways.
It was news last October when a self-driving truck from the Otto company traveled 120 highway miles to deliver a load of beer:
America is producing more than ever before, but it is doing so with fewer and fewer workers. Once trucks become automated, where will these jobs go?
In April 2016, Uber announced the acquisition of Otto, a San Francisco-based startup that has developed a kit that can turn any big rig into a self-driving truck.
The Otto technology enables complete autonomy on highways: trucks can navigate, stay in their lane, and slow or stop in response to traffic conditions completely without human intervention. Otto’s equipment currently costs about $30,000, but that is certain to fall significantly in the coming years.
Otto is by no means alone. Massive automated vehicles are already commonly used to move materials for the Australian mining industry. Daimler, the German multinational company, has likewise demonstrated its own model, a giant 18-wheeler with a “highway pilot” mode available (meaning a driver has to remain present, prompting the head of the US branch to say that “tomorrow’s driver will be a logistics manager”). Another approach is to use automated convoys, in which self-driving trucks follow a lead vehicle.
It seems highly likely that competition between the various companies developing these technologies will produce practical, self-driving trucks within the next five to 10 years. And once the technology is proven, the incentive to adopt it will be powerful: in the US alone, large trucks are involved in about 350,000 crashes a year, resulting in nearly 4,000 fatalities. Virtually all of these incidents can be traced to human error. The potential savings in lives, property damage and exposure to liability will eventually become irresistible.
There’s only one problem: truck driving is one of the most common occupations in the US.
Once replaced by automation, where will these jobs go?
As of 2015, a typical production worker in the US earned about 9% less than a comparable worker in 1973. Over the same 42 years, the American economy grew by more than 200%, or a staggering $11tn.
For millions of average Americans, the reasonable expectations of their youth – a steady job, home ownership, college education for their children – have degraded into decades of stagnation, even as they have been continuously bombarded by news of the overall growth and prosperity of the US economy.
The driving force behind this transition has been technology. It is widely recognized among economists that while the impact of globalization has been significant, especially in specific regions of the country, robots and factory automation have been a far more powerful force. Indeed, even those jobs that did migrate to China are now evaporating as factories there aggressively automate. Continue reading this article
After writing dozens of blogs for LimitsToGrowth.org about rapidly advancing automation, robots and computer software, my aim was to produce a series of basic articles that would introduce the subject as a whole to readers who might not have realized the effect of technology on today’s workplace. Many people understand that automation is a growing element of manufacturing that has reduced the need for factory workers, but don’t realize the extent to which the new technology is showing up in every corner of the work universe. The Associated Press reported in 2013 that numerous businesses responded to the Great Recession by implementing machines to replace millions of workers worldwide. It therefore seems clear that the slow pace of employment recovery is at least partially due to automation, although the Obama administration’s numerous regulations have had a discouraging effect on hiring as well.
Big changes are planned for the nation’s transportation, although the citizens have not been consulted about whether they want private ownership of cars to be pushed to the side as the government plans for a system of self-driving cars hooked up to enormous computer networks.
Not that long ago, self-driving cars were just a spark in Sergei Brin’s mind, and were thought by many automation experts as something to occur in the distant future, if at all.
Ford: All of this [technology] is subject to a continuing acceleration, and for that reason, it’s going to unfold at a rate that may surprise us. To take the example of driverless cars: It’s just a few years ago — really, back in 2009 — that I wrote my first book on this topic, and I never imagined at that time that driverless cars would be feasible any time soon. It seemed like an almost impossible task, even to me. Yet now, virtually every auto manufacturer, as well as a whole bunch of companies that haven’t traditionally been in the car industry, are working on this, and it’s looking like it’s going to be feasible within 10, 15 years, at least. So it’s pretty amazing how fast things are moving.
At some point, the major car manufacturers figured out that automation technology was going forward and they should get on board in order to shape events to their advantage. That viewpoint was made clear in a Senate hearing where one of the expert panelists was an executive from General Motors (Hands Off: The Future of Self-Driving Cars, March 15, 2016).
SECRETARY OF TRANSPORTATION ANTHONY FOXX: “We are on the cusp of a new era in automotive technology with enormous potential to save lives, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and transform mobility for the American people. Today’s actions and those we will pursue in the coming months will provide the foundation and the path forward for manufacturers, state officials, and consumers to use new technologies and achieve their full safety potential.” (Gizmodo).
The upshot of the big tech plan is that self-driving cars will be joined together in a government-run network which will make a vehicle appear on demand when an individual calls for one — which sounds like quite a tall order even if the technology can be made to work. Cars are a lot about freedom in American culture, but the government thinks private car ownership needs to be pruned back to reduce roadway crowding, and a networked robot car system is what the big brains cobbled together.
Most citizens have no idea that this monstrous experiment is about to be foisted upon them, yet it is in the pipeline, unless the system fails or the people just reject it. The first step is to try out the technology at the city level, and the Smart City Challenge sponsored by the Department of Transportation is a way to kickstart that process with a pile of money.
One good thing about self-driving cars would be that rude foreign cabbies become obsolete and no more of them would be imported. . . right?
In ten years, will American cities still be crippled by bumper to bumper traffic and inadequate public transportation? Or will our urban centers come up with some ingenious technological solutions — and the funding to make them happen?
The Department of Transportation and major U.S. cities are betting on technology to solve their transit woes. As part of its “Smart Cities Challenge,” the DOT will give a winning city up to $40 million to help it experiment with innovative transit options. It would also be eligible for an additional $10 million from Paul Allen’s Vulcan Inc.
San Francisco, a finalist, imagines a fanciful city with an elaborate network of city-run self-driving cars and shuttles, where the on-demand businesses it’s still struggling to regulate are a seamless part of life.
The most technologically ambitious part of San Francisco’s big vision, created by the city’s new Office of Innovation, is getting people out of the driver’s seat and into shared, autonomous cars. The idea is to reduce traffic and reclaim parking structures and some roadways for housing and parks.
Existing streets will be outfitted with sensors so they can communicate with cars. Cars will be able to talk to other vehicles, orchestrating a delicate synchronized dance to minimize traffic and injuries.
The catch? The idea hinges on people selling their cars and relying on a city-run transit service. It’s a grand vision, but to convince anyone to give up their cars, the new system would need to be much faster and better executed than San Francisco’s current public transit. Continue reading this article
Robots were on parade recently in Zurich to demonstrate in favor of a basic income for all citizens, a referendum item which is slated for the June 5 Swiss election.
Whether you agree with the solution, it’s refreshing to see people debating the socially transformative problem — what are humans supposed to do for income when half or more jobs are done by smart machines over the long term? As NYU Professor Gary Marcus remarked last Labor Day, “Eventually I think most jobs will be replaced, like 75 or 80 percent of the people are not going to work for a living.”
That’s a social apocalypse headed this way, and most political leaders are on snooze-mode.
As I have described, only two governments have grappled with the approaching automation behemoth: Tennessee and Israel. More attention in the states would be welcome, as well as in Washington, if the people in the Congress aren’t too busy with fundraising for re-election.
The idea of a guaranteed basic income as a remedy to technological unemployment has been floating around on the internets where the automation future is being discussed, both pro and con. The strategy was included in Martin Ford’s important book, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future. He cites Hayek as a conservative proponent of the proposal.
Of course, a government that controls and dispenses incomes sounds a whole lot like socialism, and we know how well that hasn’t worked. If anyone can come up with a capitalism-based response to the robot catastrophe, inquiring minds would love to hear it.
It looked like the Zurich robots had a good time, at least.
Naturlich, the robots should also advocate for an end to immigration in Switzerland, because foreign workers will not be needed in the near future, if they ever were. In fact,
A “robot rally” has taken place in Zurich, with more than 100 activists wearing cardboard costumes in the streets as part of a major call for the introduction of Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) in Switzerland.
The Swiss are set to go to the polls on June 5 in a referendum on a guaranteed income for everyone. The sum proposed stands at 2,500 Swiss Francs ($2,500). The Swiss people will be voting on a new article in the country’s constitution which stipulates that the federal government would have to implement the UBI with an “amount high enough for people to live off in dignity.”
According to the organizers of the first rally of its kind in the world, activists from the Unconditioned Basic Income (BGE) movement, claim that the main idea of an UBI is to secure the basic needs of human life unconditionally. Calling themselves “the robots”, they argue that humans should be free and not struggle for basic income.
“We want to work for the humans to relieve them from the struggle for income. We are really good in working. But we do not want to take away people’s jobs and thereby bring them into existential difficulties,” a BGE declaration adopted earlier this year reads.
Fearing that soon the dangers of robotization in the workforce will cost humans their jobs, the “robots” decided to play an active role in defending the idea to introduce “an Unconditional Basic Income for all humans.” Continue reading this article
Why should anyone be surprised? Automation started taking jobs with the invention of the ATM (Automated Teller Machine) in 1969 which has put many human banking clerks out of work. Customers can now use self-service machines to gas up the car, purchase groceries and check in at the airport — automation which saves money for the companies utilizing it.
Few humans are needed to produce cars and trucks in today’s factories.
If the important people are aware of the automation threat to the economy, does that mean our elected representatives might wake up soon? Perhaps presidential candidates or other politicians might even make the mental leap to the idea that importing immigrant workers is not appropriate to our modern times.
Some of the richest, smartest and most powerful humans have an important message for the rest of us as they convened this week to discuss pressing global issues: the robots are coming.
At the Milken Institute’s Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, at least four panels so far have focused on technology taking over markets to mining – and most importantly, jobs.
“Most of the benefits we see from automation is about higher quality and fewer errors, but in many cases it does reduce labor,” Michael Chui, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute, said on Tuesday during a panel on “Is Any Job Truly Safe?”
The four-day annual conference, which began on Sunday, has 3,500 invite-only participants exploring “The Future of Human Kind.” Continue reading this article
While our hidebound representatives in Washington DC continue to ignore the technological revolution increasing in the nation’s workplaces, the political leaders in Tennessee are stepping up. The state government recognized the problem, studied it and finally created a policy response in the form of an educational program. The nation’s leaders should do half as well.
Below, robots build cars, a job that once provided employment for many thousands of American workers.
First, the bad news: 1.4 million Tennessee jobs, or around half of existing employment, are predicted to be lost to advancing juggernaut of robots, automation and software in the near future. That conclusion was published in the Tennessee Workforce Disruption Index, a project of a state economic research agency.
It’s good to see a state take the automation revolution seriously. In particular, Tennessee has set up its “Drive to 55” initiative which refers to the goal of raising the number of workers with post-secondary degrees from the current 37 percent to 55 percent by 2025.
So these technologies are coming after the skilled jobs, the good jobs, the jobs that college graduates might want to take and really kind of upends this conventional view that the solution to all of this is more education.
You know, the idea that if you lose your low skilled job then we’ll send you back to school and give you some more training so that you can move up the skills ladder. That’s looking like it may not work so well because the technology is also coming after those skilled jobs.
At least Tennessee is engaged and facing the future, which is more than you can say for Washington. That place still can’t find the OFF switch for immigration, even when it’s clear that importing more foreign workers is ill-advised given employment’s shrinking future. Enlarging the angry underclass of poor is unwise and can only lead to more misery.
Remember: Automation makes immigration obsolete.
Here’s a local report of Tennessee’s grappling with the automation behemoth:
About 50 percent of Tennessee jobs, some 1.4 million, could be replaced by robots, automation and advanced technology in the near future, according to a new study from the state’s economic development department.
That’s the crux of a new report by the Center for Economic Research in Tennessee, which explores the impact automation and technological disruption may have on the state’s workforce in the years ahead.
The study notes that 1.4 million workers have a high likelihood of being displaced by automation — a total that represents 37 percent of the wages among Tennessean workers. Continue reading this article
I’ve posted earlier discussions with the author of Rise of the Robots before (Australia ABC radio, Sept 2015 and NPR, May 2015) but the latest has a timely dialogue about jobs and the incursion of smart machines.
The automated workplace is a huge and basic threat to the economy when the social contract of payment to workers for tasks performed becomes more broadly undermined. We seem to be seeing the beginning stages now in the jobless recovery, which is partially caused by businesses turning to machines to survive the hard times of the recession:
Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. What’s more, these jobs aren’t just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they aren’t just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers.
These forecasts are rather alarming and seem worthy of attention in Washington. But the people’s representatives are asleep as the future economy is headed off a cliff.
Government needs to wake up and smell the technological unemployment — something that has not happened in Washington, where the same old prescriptions are dragged out with no understanding of the new age of automation.
There are no easy fixes, but certainly the first thing to do is slash immigration severely, because America won’t require foreign workers for the mythical “jobs Americans won’t do” — citizens will need those jobs.
Today, robots are increasingly handling many jobs in manufacturing that were done by human hands not more than 20 years ago. This sea change has affected a variety of industries, and it’s one reason why the jobs recovery of the past few years hasn’t included as many manufacturing jobs. Those jobs weren’t just destroyed — they were lost to smart machines.
But while we’re living in a time when computer programs already dominate Wall Street, and when driverless cars and delivery drones are moving from science fiction to mundane fact, those developments may be just the tip of the iceberg. Martin Ford, author of Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, recently appeared on the Knowledge@Wharton show on Wharton Business Radio on SiriusXM channel 111 to talk about how the robot revolution has affected businesses in a host of industries, what it means for jobs in the years ahead, and what other surprises might be on the horizon.
An edited transcript of the conversation appears below.
Knowledge@Wharton: We’ve seen these changes going on. Where does your concern lie for the future?
Martin Ford: It’s really across the board. Traditionally, robots have been in factories, but I think that over the next 10 to 20 years, automation in the form of robots, smart software and machine learning is really going to invade pretty much across the board. It’s going to start impacting jobs at all skill levels. It’s not just going to be about low-wage people who don’t have lots of education. It’s really starting to impact also professional jobs.
Knowledge@Wharton: For years, when you did have robots involved, they were viewed as a supplement to the workers, but that clearly isn’t the case now in some areas. From what you’re saying, we’re going to see this even more going forward.
Ford: That’s right. I really think we’re in the midst of a transition where in the past, machines have always been tools that have been used by people and made those people more productive, but increasingly, the technology is really becoming a replacement or a substitute for more and more workers. That’s going to be a huge issue over the coming decade.
Knowledge@Wharton: Based on the level of adoption by businesses so far, what has been the effect on the economy? It’s probably somewhat marginal at this point, but it’s certainly going to be growing.
Ford: That’s right. Clearly, we have not seen actual massive unemployment as a result of this. That’s obvious. But what we have seen is, for decades now, wages have been stagnant, and even now, as the economy has been recovering and we’ve seen the unemployment rate falling, we haven’t seen anything in terms of wage increases. I do think that technology is probably one of the main forces that’s driving that stagnation of wages. It’s important to note the way that stagnation is happening — even as, over the long run, productivity has continued to increase. We see this decoupling of productivity and wages that really points to this transition that’s unfolding.
Knowledge@Wharton: You work in software development, so this is an area that you have focused on professionally for quite some time. How quickly are we going to see this continue to grow? I was watching a segment on a TV show earlier today where they were showing off a driverless pick-up truck. That technology is getting closer and closer to being a part of our everyday life.
Ford: That’s right. All of this is subject to a continuing acceleration, and for that reason, it’s going to unfold at a rate that may surprise us. To take the example of driverless cars: It’s just a few years ago — really, back in 2009 — that I wrote my first book on this topic, and I never imagined at that time that driverless cars would be feasible any time soon. It seemed like an almost impossible task, even to me. Yet now, virtually every auto manufacturer, as well as a whole bunch of companies that haven’t traditionally been in the car industry, are working on this, and it’s looking like it’s going to be feasible within 10, 15 years, at least. So it’s pretty amazing how fast things are moving. Continue reading this article
Aside from techies, financial people appear to be the most aware of the fundamental changes now occurring in the workplace caused by automation. People who analyze economic trends, including employment, have to look at the facts and numbers — unlike, say, politicians who are either clueless or hiding under the bed. (See my new Social Contract article, Presidential Candidates: Why Is Automation’s Job Destruction Not Being Debated?)
And, as noted in the following article, some financial analysts now have robo-advisors which utilize algorithms to generate investing advice. Furthermore, the big changes to the workplace are “coming more quickly than you think — in less than a decade.”
In many ways, the transformation is happening now, only Washington and most of the media are in snooze-mode.
David Sowerby, who has managed investment portfolios for more than 25 years, does not fear the robot revolution.
But should he?
The rapid innovation of automation, largely originating in manufacturing operations, is expanding into new industries, such as the financial sector, and will challenge our concept of the labor force, according to experts. And it’s coming more quickly than you think — in less than a decade.
This quarter, Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch is serving clients with online robo-advisers, which use algorithms to assess dozens of factors and generate investing advice.
Bank of America, in an extensive study published late last year, predicts advancements in robotics and automation will displace up to 25 million workers globally in the financial and legal services sectors by the end of 2025, with the potential to do the work of more than half the 230 million-person global base of knowledge-based workers in the same timeframe.
Experts are split on the ill effects of automation, but they agree that the labor force must play catch-up, and fast, to face a world where a large portion of current jobs will be done by computers.
At Bank of America, robo-advisers are a win-win for the bottom line. The firm is able to target clients with investable assets below $250,000, who generally don’t get access to its live Merrill Edge advisers, at lower cost to the client.
“Really, we’re targeting the untapped market (with robo-advisers),” said Beijia Ma, strategist on the thematic investing team at Bank of America in London and researcher on automation. “But, as that software gets better, me and my colleagues, the thundering herd of Merrill Lynch, maybe we wouldn’t be as necessary.” Continue reading this article
Smart machines will likely fuel social turmoil in ways we can barely imagine now. Automation has already contributed substantially to the jobless recovery here at home. In addition, the decreasing cost of the machines means they are already taking jobs from humans in the third world and will do so to an increasing degree.
The basic Baxter robot costs around $25,000, and Martin Ford reported in “Rise of the Robots” that “Delta hopes to offer a one-armed assembly robot for about $10,000” which would really open up machine use for poor countries and small companies.
The report below is based on the recent Davos meeting that focused on the Fourth Industrial Revolution, aka automation.
In the following video included with the text item, the reporter notes, “There have been some reports that maybe 40 percent of jobs are going to be destroyed by the rise of robots, of automation, digitization, which is a frightening prospect for many people,” but he doesn’t specify a time frame.
It’s likely that when Guatemalans (and others) suffer sufficiently from the “premature deindustrialisation” mentioned below, many will head north hoping to get lucky in stupid-generous America. Why wouldn’t they?
Automation threatens 85% of jobs in Ethiopia and many more across emerging markets, study says
Automation and the march of the robots will prove most disruptive to the world’s poorest nations, with 85 per cent of all jobs in Ethiopia in danger of being lost, according to new analysis.
Nepal, Cambodia, China, Bangladesh and Guatemala are among the other countries most at risk from “premature deindustrialisation”, according to research by Citi, the US bank, and the Oxford Martin School, a research and policy unit of the UK university.
“There is a really strong [negative] relationship between countries’ level of income and their susceptibility to automation,” says Carl Benedikt Frey, co-director of the Oxford Martin programme on technology and employment.
The findings come a week after the World Economic Forum said more than 5m jobs will be lost globally by 2020 as a result of advances in artificial intelligence, robotics and other technological change. (The scale of this growth, in robotics at least, is indicated in the first chart).
To date, the debate on the impact of the so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” has focused on the developed world. Analysis by the Martin School in 2013 concluded that 47 per cent of US jobs were at risk of automation over the coming two decades.
Throughout the industrialized world, automation is making rapid inroads into the workplace and has displaced millions of humans from jobs in the Great Recession. The process operates similarly everywhere — a business owner finds a machine or software that can perform a task more cheaply than a human, and the worker gets a pink slip before breakfast. That’s how it goes, from Los Angeles to Beijing and Tel Aviv.
Speaking of Israel, a recent article revealed a political awareness there of the automation workplace revolution that is sadly lacking in Washington. Member of the Knesset Aliza Lavie says she has made technological unemployment her top issue because, as she observed, “the world is about to change.” Lavie has organized a day in the legislature devoted to considering the future of jobs on Feb. 2 and what can be done to prepare for the coming employment challenges.
Meanwhile in Washington, it’s crickets. The hard-fought Presidential candidates of both parties mentioned the automation threat to employment only once in all their debates — and amnesty hack Marco Rubio deflected the question. Are they totally clueless about the existence of the problem or do they merely have no idea what can be done?
You would think that the forecasts that nearly half of US jobs are at risk from smart machines by 2033 (Oxford University researchers) or one-third of jobs will be automated by 2025 (Gartner consulting) would elicit some attention by the bright lights in government. But the clear warnings from experts haven’t gotten any reaction from political leaders in America.
It will be interesting to see what Israel develops as a coping strategy. Retraining will likely be part of it, although Rise of the Robots author Martin Ford warns that as machines become smarter and more dexterous, they will do jobs we now might think beyond automation.
Computers will replace 41% of Israel’s workers within 20 years, Taub Center report says. What is the government doing to prepare?
Let’s say you’re a young person without much family money and you aspire to a middle-class existence. Here are some of the career choices you should avoid: accountant, bus driver, architect, real-estate agent and bank manager.
You heard right. Close to half of all jobs that exist today in the developed world will be performed by computers and robots in the next two decades, according to a watershed 2013 paper by Oxford University economists Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne. Now, the Taub Center for Social Policy Research in Jerusalem has applied Frey and Osborne’s methodology to the Israeli job market.
It is small comfort to learn that in Israel only 41 percent (as opposed to 47% in the United States and 54% in Europe) of jobs are at high risk of disappearing in the next decade or two, according to Shavit Madhala-Brik, who authored the paper.
Still, Yesh Atid MK Aliza Lavie agrees that 41% is a shocking number and worries the Israeli government isn’t doing enough to prepare for the coming waves of unemployment. For the past year, she has made this her number-one issue in the Knesset.
“We’re not addressing this and we don’t understand that the world is about to change,” Lavie said.“The Knesset and government are aware of the issue but I don’t see anything being implemented yet. I hope Avi Simhon [Netanyahu’s newly appointed senior economic advisor] will take an interest.
To that end, Lavie has organized a Knesset day devoted to employment of the future on February 2. The Education Committee will discuss how to adapt school and university curricula, another committee will discuss turning the Galilee into an economic engine, while others discuss how to prepare Haredim and Arabs, who are projected to constitute a majority of working age Israelis by 2050, for this new job market.
The reason why jobs are disappearing is due to advances in what is known as artificial intelligence. Just as a computer can beat the best human at chess, algorithms can now drive cars, do your taxes and even diagnose cancer more successfully and with fewer errors than humans. Even though Internet theorist Jaron Lanier has argued in the past that artificial intelligence is in fact a misnomer and even a form of accounting theft from the millions of humans whose data is aggregated, this will not stop automation from destroying jobs.
“You can already see there is no need for travel agents anymore,” Lavie told The Times of Israel. “I was really surprised that soon we won’t need bus drivers. There was a time in Israel when every mother wanted her son to be a bus driver. To work for Egged was like — wow — you had a golden ticket and job security.” Continue reading this article
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, which includes developments in previously disjointed fields such as artificial intelligence and machine-learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, and genetics and biotechnology, will cause widespread disruption not only to business models but also to labour markets over the next five years, with enormous change predicted in the skill sets needed to thrive in the new landscape. This is the finding of a new report, The Future of Jobs, published today by the World Economic Forum.
With a largely jobless future looming, what possible excuse is there for Washington to admit millions more immigrants when there will be no employment for them? Immigration should be retired as an institution that is no longer appropriate, like rotary phones and homesteading.
If human jobs are indeed becoming obsolete, as experts suggest, then immigration should be recognized as likewise anachronistic.
Technologies such as big data, advanced analytics, the internet of things, wearables, advanced robotics, learning machines and 3D printing are finding their way into factories.
Despite the sluggishness of change on today’s factory floors, this digital wave is slowly but surely revolutionizing manufacturing, contributing to major productivity enhancements and the emergence of innovative production paradigms that deliver more tailored and efficient solutions.
Needless to say, this transformation has profound implications for manufacturing employment, affecting everything from the size of the workforce, to the skillsets required and the locations of factories. Will this Fourth Industrial Revolution lead to a jobless future for manufacturing or will the “traditional” response of education and training allow workers to remain employable?
A factory with no employees?
According to Autodesk CEO Carl Bass, “The factory of the future will have only two employees: a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment.”
Indeed, from Jeremy Rifkin in the End of Work to Martin Ford in the Rise of the Robots, economists have been predicting that automation will make human jobs – at least as we know them today – obsolete in the not-too-distant future. In the United States alone, manufacturing jobs have fallen from 25% of the total in 1970 to approximately 10% today, as James H. Lee reminds us in his blog on the World Future Society website. Productivity and employment, which rose and fell in tandem until the early 2000s, now show an increasing gap, reflecting the fact that humans are being displaced by machines for many jobs. Continue reading this article
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